Can I time the real estate market?

Author: Sachin Gupta | Find me on Twitter Follow @sach_gupta

During the period of 2003 to 2008, property prices appreciated sharply. Land prices almost tripled in most parts of the country on account of faster job creation, urbanization, and rising income levels. Were these the only reasons for sharp appreciation? No, say the experts. According to them, real estate is a cyclical industry and at the beginning of the last decade, real estate prices were at their nadir. The coupling effect of sharp GDP growth and cyclical nature of the real estate industry resulted in a sharp appreciation of property prices from 2003 to 2008.

However, as the world financial crisis hit the world economy in September 2008, the GDP growth of most emerging economies started to dwindle. India was no exception and government & RBI brought in policy measures. In fact, the advent of the global financial crisis in 2008 caused a resurgence in Keynesian thought. Interest rates were lowered and government-provided stimulus (total spending in the economy) to boost the economy. At one point in time, RBI’s repo rate came down to a low of 4.75% in April 2009.

The impact of the financial crisis was severe in the real estate market. Some of the large real estate developers started offering a discount to the tune of 20% in 2008. The sector began to recover on account of government policy initiatives and the lowering of repo rate. However, massive government spending and low-interest rates during the period of 2009-2011 resulted in inflationary pressures. And the focus now shifted to tame inflation and thus interest rates started to go up and that resulted in a decrease in investment by individuals and companies.

In the last 2 years, real estate transactions including office space absorption and home sales have come down. The prices have stagnated in most micro markets.

With this in the background, can you, the real estate investor really time the market? It’s highly unlikely; however, one can pay attention to the real estate investment strategies, demand drivers, and supply elements.

1. Real estate investment strategies

2. Demand drivers

Following are demand drivers for the real estate sector

• Industry

This is a no brainer; even my grandmom would say prices would appreciate more in cities/markets where there is all the likelihood of work or jobs creation or setting up of industries. Therefore, as an investor one should regularly visit the city development authority’s website and analyze the city’s master plan. A master plan would ideally comprise the road map for the city's development including the setting up of industries, educational institutes, recreational zones, and residential development. At the same time, pay attention to the news which highlights the setting up of a particular industry in your region. For example, the driving industries in Gurgaon are Auto and IT, and setting up these industries in the 80s and 90s has resulted in a real estate boom in the city.

• Population growth

Growth in population requires the development of housing. Other societal changes such as the rise of nuclear families, the movement of skilled workers from other parts of the country again require the development of housing. Analyze the population growth in your city by following census reports along with indicators for urbanization.

• Income levels

It’s true that setting up an industry in your region would result in direct and indirect job creation which will lead to a variety of real estate development. However, pay attention to what kind of industry is this? And what are the income levels of people in your region? For example, real estate prices in Gurgaon have appreciated more because of high-income levels of people in the city as opposed to say Bhiwadi (primarily a manufacturing town being developed under the Make in India program) where income levels are low.

3. Supply elements

Following are the supply elements that affect the real estate sector:

• Interest rates

As explained above, interest rates have a direct impact on the supply of real estate. High-interest rates bring down the overall supply. On the other hand, low-interest rates encourage investment by both individuals and companies.

• Land availability

Again one should look at the city’s master plan for availability of land. If land supply is limited, it is a good indicator that real estate prices will shoot up faster than expected. And if there is plenty of lands available with the city development authority; it will mean price appreciation will be linear. For example, in Delhi, due to limited land parcels, property prices appreciated sharply. However, now, DDA has initiated the land pooling policy and has demarcated new land parcels. It is now expected that the availability of this new land will put pressure on existing property prices in the city and city outskirts. Raising the FSI/FAR can also result in the softening of property prices. Track those developments.

• Physical and social infrastructure

One should also pay attention to the existing supply of physical and social infrastructure in the city. In certain cities such as Greater Noida, physical infrastructure is in excellent shape. But property prices have not appreciated sharply. This is because social infrastructure which includes industrial development is minimal.

Equilibrium

As long as supply and demand are in equilibrium, the returns from real estate investment will be linear. Therefore, as an investor, one should look for distortion in demand and supply curves. If demand is expected to be higher than the supply, it calls for investment in real estate to make windfall profits. If supply outdoes demand then it will yield low returns on your investment. 

Can I time the real estate market?

No, it’s not possible to gather data to time the real estate market. Instead, one should solely focus on 3 broad ideas as explained above and only then one should make a bet on real estate investment.

Did you follow these 3 principle ideas for real estate investment?

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Things to Avoid while Investing in Real Estate

If you were to believe the latest national news, consumer confidence is on the decline and cash deficit on builders on an incline. In Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, and other popular cities, the demand has come down to around 50% for new property launches.

But not everything in real estate is gloomy, the Reserve Bank of India has recently made a cut in policy interest rates. While this news may cause haste in investing in the sector, say in buying luxury villas in Bangalore or any other metro cities, there are some things you need to consider before making an investment. These are mentioned below for your consideration:

• Trading in real estate properties frequently

When you trade in real estate properties more frequently – that is, buy or sell your property in shorter duration – you may incur a loss in tax benefits.

To be precise, if you sell your property within 3 years of making your real estate acquisition, such acquisition would then be called short term capital gain, which entitles you to zero tax concession or exemption.

But, if you sell your real estate property after 3 years, it entitles you to long term capital gains and the taxation for this would be at a comparatively lower rate.

Be wary that if you trade-in too many times even in long term capital gains as it could alarm your Income Tax officer, who may consider this dealing as your business income and withdraw the low rate on long term gains.

• Investing in properties that are due completion

It’s easy for your agent or builder to make excuses for not completing their project on time and completing it at a much later date than promised. They may not have any hidden agenda behind this, except prolonging time. It means a little more number of EMIs for you than which were originally expected.

The second of the two-pronged effect of the delay is this: The tax benefits that you receive on your property investment are restrained on possession, which is a direct effect of long delays.

Being alert on investing in incomplete or overdue properties is therefore very important, at least for your pockets.

• Planning your budget before investing

We know that if a budget is unplanned or unsupervised before investing in real estate, it may deplete most of your saved resources, back-up money, or hamper your short-term investments. It may also affect your daily expenditure and can create dearth in your cherished small purchases every now and then.

Purchasing properties not just involves a down payment but also what seems like an endless array of EMIs – directly affecting your monthly salary.

Seek the professional advice of your financial consultant before buying a real estate property. A good recommendation would be saving at least 40% of your total income after you have made your investment.

• Considering all the factors before making your investment

As again like planning your budget, it is equally important in knowing and fully understanding all factors involved with making your investment, because knowing the loan criteria, real estate details, and repaying capacity are not adequate. Consult a financial adviser for a complete financial plan on your investment.

• Plenty of investment in properties may not result in profits always

The best idea would be to divide your finances into different types of investments, and not just stick to investing in real estate. First, because transaction costs in real estate are much higher than say investing in gold, bank deposits, bond funds, equities, etc.

The prime reason that people choose to invest in a lump sum in properties is that their prices increase at a faster rate compared to other most forms of investments. While this may not be true always, it’s wise to be aware of the current changes or trends in the market for accurate predictions.

If you are planning to make any investment such as buying villas in Bangalore or Chennai, etc., these above-mentioned points should hopefully help you in making the right investment.


This is a guest post by Dinesh Dhawde

What are the parameters that I should pay attention to in order to maximize my returns on Property Investment?

Author: Sachin Gupta | Find me on Twitter Follow @sach_gupta

Real estate is a complex business to be in. Not only one needs to understand the market (supply and demand element), but at the same time, one should be aware of tax laws, registration processes, title conveyance, planning the development of project, rent laws, and state government’s land policies. Therefore, as an individual investor, what is it that one should take primary note of in order to maximize his/her returns on investment made? Let’s explore below:

• Micro market trends

Although not foolproof, the market trends with respect to movement of property prices present an insight into the gains and losses of micro markets within a city. If a micro market or locality is showing downward trend for 3-4 consecutive quarters, then it is a clear signal that there is something wrong with the locality that investors are wary of. However, if whole city is showing downward trend because of slow down of economic growth or political instability, then, one needs to be patient before investing in any locality within that city.

There are 3 to 4 major property indices in Indian real estate market. Analyze them in detail before investing in a property. The most talked about property index in India is released on a quarterly basis by National Housing Bank. One should definitely pay attention to this residential index.

• Master plan of a city

Master plan of a city is another key indicator as far as maximizing returns on your property investment. Master Plan is developed by town planning authorities or city civic bodies. It is a plan that takes into consideration city’s existing population, future expansion in population, need for infrastructure, and industrial development within a city. To accommodate population growth and facilitate industrial development, civic authorities earmark or zone the city. Certain pockets or sectors are demarcated for residential development, and some other for industrial or commercial development. Therefore, what master plan tells you is that how the city’s development would pan out for coming 10-20 years. Pay considerable attention to this aspect before investing in a property. Here are the links of civic bodies across India that deal with master planning.

• Where are builders building the new projects?

Once master plan is prepared, civic bodies then invite applications from private developers to develop the land. Therefore, it is no surprise that builders are allotted land in one cluster or certain specific clusters of the city. Which are these clusters? In addition to finding it out in master plan, one can simply analyze the market and see the launch of new real estate projects.

In addition, one can find below the detailed document comprising the Guidelines for achieving maximum returns on real estate investment in India.

Guidelines for achieving maximum returns on real estate investment in india from Green Realtech Projects Pvt. Ltd

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